US economic data weakened across the board, and copper prices may retrace today after rising slightly [[SMM Copper Morning Comment]]

SMM News on May 6: On the evening of last Wednesday, LME copper opened at $9,230/mt, hitting a high of $9,243/mt shortly after the opening bell. It then fluctuated downward throughout the session, touching a low of $9,103/mt near the close, and eventually closed at $9,446/mt, up 0.22%. Trading volume reached 700 lots, while open interest stood at 287,000 lots. SHFE copper was closed on the evening of last Wednesday. On the macro front, US economic data weakened significantly, with the "US ADP employment data" plunging sharply and employment only increasing by 62,000. The US economy contracted for the first time since 2022, with Q1 GDP declining by 0.3%. The monthly rate of the US core PCE price index in March was recorded at 0%, the lowest since April 2020 and below the expected 0.1%. The US economy is currently in a phase where "soft data" has pulled back sharply, while "hard data" remains moderate. Some analysts believe that the weakening of the US economy has a certain degree of persistence, but it has not yet fully entered a recession, and copper prices have maintained a slight upward trend. On the fundamental front, from the demand side, on the last trading day before the Labour Day holiday, most traders exited the market early, reducing market activity. However, just-in-time procurement still provided support for spot premiums. As of April 30, SMM's copper inventories in major regions across China fell by 25,500 mt WoW to 129,600 mt, marking the ninth consecutive week of destocking with an accelerated pace. Inventories have pulled back by 247,400 mt from the year's high and are 275,100 mt lower YoY. Looking ahead to this week, with the expected replenishment of supply and a decline in downstream consumption sentiment, spot premiums may come under pressure, while inventories may see a slight buildup. Copper prices are expected to open slightly lower today.